This round clearly goes to the Obama Administration challengers with the U.S. Senate voting to end both the C-17 and the F-22 programs. Is the match up over? Not hardly.

So where do things stand at this point? The government has appropriated funds to bring the C-17 fleet from it's current force level of 188 C-17s, to 213 planes, the House Appropriations Committee unanimously voted funds for 3 planes above that number, the U.S. Senate has voted to stop C-17 production at 213 planes, and a final house bill and Senate/House conference committee are the next rounds in this bout. If more planes are not funded or international orders do not materialize, the C-17 production line could shut down by the end of 2011.

Last week, we reported the Obama Administration had drawn a line across the ring by saying any 2010 defense budget bill that included more F-22s would be vetoed by the president. We also pointed out that in the first unveiling of the Administration's budget recommendations back in April, production of both the F-22 and the C-17 was to be halted. When the Administration drew their veto threat on only the F-22, and said nothing about the C-17, the fate of the 5,000 Boeing Long Beach workers who build the C-17 was left unclear.

Last week, in a surprisingly resounding victory for the Obama Administration and particularly for Secretary of Defense , Robert M. Gates, the U.S. Senate overwhelmingly passed a 2010 defense budget which did not include funds for more C-17s or F-22s. The House committee version of this bill includes funds for 3 more of the heavy airlifters, so the next rounds are the final house bill and conference committee, where the differences will be reconciled. Both the senate and the house are scheduled to go on their summer vacation soon, so the next round might be a few weeks off. The government's 2010 fiscal year starts on October 1.

Despite much senatorial talk about saving the program, the Obama Administration was very successful in garnering bipartisan support to terminate C-17 production. While every senator in the room fully understands that this is not the final vote, when the roll call was tabulated on Thursday, 87 senators voted in favor of the measure, 7 voted against, and 6 did not vote. From California, Senator Barbara Boxer voted in favor of the defense budget which did not provide funds for any more C-17s and Senator Diane Feinstein did not vote.

Last week, there were two senate votes on the defense budget and the F-22. The first, on Tuesday, 7/21, approved an amendment specifically deleting funding for the F-22. In this vote, 58 senators voted in favor, 40 voted against, and 2 did not vote. senators Boxer and Feinstein voted against the amendment. The second vote, which approved the total defense budget, was on Thursday, 7/23.

Once again, after the vote, the President was all about the F-22, and not a word about the C-17. In Rose Garden remarks, President Obama praised the senate vote and said "I'm grateful that the Senate just voted against an additional $1.75 billion to buy F-22 fighter jets that military experts and members of both parties say we do not need. At a time when we’re fighting two wars and facing a serious deficit, this would have been an inexcusable waste of money. Every dollar of waste in our defense budget is a dollar we can’t spend to support our troops, or prepare for future threats, or protect the American people. Our budget is a zero-sum game, and if more money goes to F-22s, it is our troops and citizens who lose.

So I want to thank Secretary Gates for his outspoken leadership on this issue. I want to thank every member of Congress who put politics aside to do what’s right for the American military and the American taxpayers. And I particularly want to thank Senators Levin and McCain for helping to make this happen."

Based on the rollout of their budget back in April, he could have said exactly the same words about the exclusion of more C-17 funding from the senate bill, but he did not. He did not take questions in the Rose Garden and he did not mention the C-17, not one word. These remarks, made earlier in the week preceded the shift of national attention to healthcare reform and the scandal involving a certain Harvard professor. At that point, nobody was talking about the budget, not to mention the 5,000 Long Beach C-17 jobs.

So what does it all mean? Your Editors will go out on the proverbial limb. We believe the Obama Administration has spent as much political capital on the no-business-as-usual defense appropriation issues as they can, or will, do this year. As next year's defense budget is finalized in the house and then goes through the conference committee reconciliation in the next few weeks, the Administration will hold the veto line on no more F-22s, but they will cave in on the termination of C-17 production. The 3 planes included in the House committee version of the budget will prevail and Boeing will happily build the big planes for the next two years, bringing the force to 216.

One year from now, as the 2011 budget is debated, the F-22 discussion will become the C-17 discussion, just in time for Boeing to keep the line going. Boeing will undoubtedly land some of the 6 international contracts on which they have been working, and for the Long Beach C-17 team, the status quo will prevail a bit longer.

If the international conflict situation calms down substantially, congress might be forced to conclude that the 216 planes might be enough. If, on the other hand, the international situation is worse then today, the 22,000 additional soldiers Gates wants for the army need more "rides to the war", and our appetite for renting the Russian planes which fill in when we are short of C-17s decreases, congress will probably buy more of the planes and the Long Beach workers will keep their jobs and keep building the planes. This is, of course, all speculation on the part of your Editors. The only part that is not speculation is the senate, by an overwhelming majority, did not approve funds for more C-17s in the current version of next year's defense budget. Stay tuned for the next rounds. We will bring it to our readers when it happens.